Mike's Blog

 Posted by Mike Selvaggio in Blog on May 8th, 2008 at 8:52 PM


 NAR Forecasts Improving Home Sales Later This Year
POSTED ON: Wed, May 7, 2008
Existing-home sales activity is projected to remain soft for the next few months before improving by the end of the summer, reports NAR in its latest forecast released today. Existing-home sales are projected to total 5.39 million for 2008, down 4.6 percent from 2007, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million in 2009. The median price of an existing home is forecast to be $213,700 this year, down 2.4 percent from 2007, and rise 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.

New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 units in 2008 before rising 10.1 percent next year to 590,000, NAR reports. The median new-home price is forecast to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900. Housing starts are expected to drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 units in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year.

The Pending Home Sales Index edged downward 1.0 percent in March and was 20.1 percent lower than a year ago. In the South, the index dipped 0.1 percent in March, but is 26.7 percent lower than a year ago. In the West, the index slid 1.4 percent and is 9.5 percent below March 2007. The index fell 10.4 percent in the Midwest in March and is 22.3 percent below a year ago. Only in the Northeast did the pending sales index show improvement, jumping 12.5 percent in March, though it is still 15.4 percent below last year’s level.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says better access to affordable loans will aid the recovery process. “As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available.”




 Posted by Mike Selvaggio in Blog on March 29th, 2008 at 8:22 AM


Housing Market
New and existing home sales moved opposite directions in February.  New home sales fell 1.8% in February to a seasonally-adjusted 590,000 homes, down from a revised January figure of 601,000.  This is the fourth straight month that new home sales have posted declines although sales for the previous three months were revised higher by 20,000 units.  At the current sales pace, there are 9.8 months of new homes supply on the market.  The number of new homes for sale continued to decline as builders have been scaling back production until the market stabilizes.  New home inventory declined to 467,000 which is the lowest it has been since July 2005.  The median price for a new home jumped 8.2% in February to $244,100 which is the highest it has been since November.  An increase in both mortgage rates and new home prices in February pushed affordability back down to its lowest levels since November. 

Annualized sales of total existing homes increased 2.9% in February to 5.03 million units.  February’s annualized pace is the fastest since October.  Sales of existing homes are down 23.8% from the 6.60 million units in February 2007.  Median existing home prices in February declined again to $195,900.  Existing home prices are at their lowest levels since May 2004.  Inventory of existing homes fell 3.0% from the previous month to 4.034 million units.  At the current sales pace, there are 9.6 months of existing homes supply on the market.  Due to falling prices, affordability for existing homes are at their highest levels since February 2003.

National average mortgage rates fell slightly to 5.85% in the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey released weekly by Freddie Mac on March 27th.  This is the second straight week that rates have declined and they are now back to their lowest levels since mid-February.  In the week ending March 21st, the MBA’s seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index jumped to 403.7 from 365.0 in the previous week.  The latest figure reflects a 10.6 percent increase from last week but a 1.8 percent decline from the same period last year.  Overall mortgage activity increased significantly this past week due to a surge in refinance activity. 

 




 Posted by Mike Selvaggio in Blog on February 28th, 2008 at 11:21 AM



Half of Metropolitan Areas Show Rising Home Prices

Seventy-three out of 150 metropolitan statistical areas in the fourth quarter show increases in median existing single-family home prices from a year earlier, including 11 areas with double-digit annual gains and another 12 showing increases of 6 percent or more, NAR says. Seventy-seven markets had price declines, including 16 with double-digit drops. Despite the annual decline in the fourth quarter median home price, the typical seller who purchased their home six years ago still saw a very healthy gain. The median increase in value for sellers who purchased a home in the fourth quarter of 2001 is 31.2 percent, and the median home equity accumulation is $49,000.




 Posted by Mike Selvaggio in Blog on January 9th, 2008 at 7:50 PM


Housing Market
The existing homes market showed signs of stabilizing in November while the new homes market continued to struggle.  New home sales plunged 9.0% in November to a seasonally-adjusted 647,000 homes, down from a downwardly revised October figure of 711,000.  New home sales are now at their slowest annual pace since April 1995.  At the current sales pace, there are 9.3 months of new homes supply on the market.  Inventory levels continued to decline as builders have been scaling back production until the market stabilizes.  The number of new homes for sale declined to 509,000 which are the lowest it’s been since November 2005.  The median price for a new home rebounded 4.2% from October levels to $239,100.  Median new home prices are back to their highest levels since July.

Existing home sales posted gains for the first time since February as seasonally-adjusted sales of existing homes increased 0.4% in November to 5.0 million units.  Existing home sales have recorded a year-over-year decline in every month since February 2006.  Sales of existing homes are down 20.0 % from the 6.25 million units in November 2006.  Median existing home prices in November increased for the first time in five months to $210,200.  Inventory of existing homes fell to 10.3 months supply at the current sales pace, while the number of existing homes for sale declined 3.6% to 4.273 million units.  This is the first time since December 2006 in which both existing home prices and sales both increased while inventories declined.

National average mortgage rates declined to its lowest levels in a month to 6.07% in the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey released weekly by Freddie Mac on January 3rd.  In the week ending December 28th, the MBA’s seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index dropped to 360.8 from 394.5 in the previous week.  The purchase index is at its lowest levels since October 2003.  The latest figure reflects a 8.54 percent decline from last week and a 11.33 percent drop from the same period last year.




 Posted by Mike Selvaggio in Blog on December 7th, 2007 at 2:14 PM


 

As a long-term investment, homeownership is still one of the best investments for individual households.

“Why” you may ask? After all, the headlines say the housing market is down and out, with defaults rising at an alarming rate, and mortgage markets so frozen that buyers can’t get a home loan at any price.

What buyers need to realize is that housing markets, like all markets, inevitably have their ups and downs. And homeownership has a track record that is virtually unmatched by any other purchase in terms of its real benefits.

Despite the turmoil in mortgage lending, if you have good credit, a job and steady income, you will find there is still plenty of mortgage credit to be had at good rates. For well-qualified buyers, rates are running at near historical lows.

Homeownership’s Real Value

Here are a few examples of why, dollar for dollar, homeownership is a solid stepping stone to a future of financial security and the single largest creator of wealth for many Americans.

Over the long-term real estate has consistently appreciated, even through periodic adjustments in local markets in response to economic conditions. On a national

level, home appreciation has historically increased 5-6 percent annually, report economists at the National Association of Home Builders.

Five percent may not seem much at first, but here’s an example that will put it into perspective: Say you put 10 percent down on a $200,000 house, for an investment of $20,000. At a 5 percent annual appreciation rate, that $200,000 home would increase in value $10,000 during the first year. Earning $10,000 on an investment of $20,000 is an extraordinary 50 percent annual return.

In contrast, putting that $20,000 down payment into the stock market and getting a 5 percent gain would only yield a $1,000 profit.

Compared to Stocks

Looking at it another way, over a longer period of time, if someone put $10,000 into the stock market in 1996, the average annual S&P return would make that investment worth $21,500 today—an increase of $11,500. The median home price in 1996 was $140,000.

Today, that same home would have gained nearly $100,000 in value.

Don’t miss out on the benefits of homeownership.





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